Pitches, Balls and Reserves β Where the Iconic Series Will Be Won and Lost
Just 48 hours to go.
The English side's first Test in Australia begins on the morning of Friday.
With the help of cricket statistics experts, we examine where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be won and lost.
It's tough to make runs, isn't it?
Batters on both teams of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are bothering to show up.
Much of the build-up has centred around the apparent challenge of batting successfully, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".
When it comes to batting in Australia, particularly against pace bowling, no nation has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.
There are two reasons for this: wickets and balls.
Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the most inconsistent in the world.
Pace and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.
A long-standing narrative from English cricket paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.
A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.
Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in Australian conditions.
After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.
Test cricket is about solving problems.
When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.
If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.
What's going on with the Australia seamers?
On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the home side are the ones affected by fitness issues.
Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.
Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a trio for the 2017-18 series.
Since then, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.
Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'big three'.
On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average under 17.
In addition to Scott Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have stepped up.
Michael Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.
The last time Australia went into a home Test without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in 2012.
On the last two occasions they have played at home without the duo, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, featuring a win against England in Adelaide four years ago.
In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, results have not been affected β England should take heed.
Challenging Openings
Remember when England could not find an opener to partner Alastair Cook?
Cook went through partners faster than Watford change coaches.
Not anymore.
Since Duckett and Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.
Their success as a combination has been a factor in Crawley being backed through some patchy form.
Crawley, who famously struck the first ball of the previous Ashes for four, has also been recognized as having the game for Australia.
His batting average rises when the bowling gets faster.
By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.
After Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 matches.
Uncapped Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.
It's not only the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.
Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.
Domestic form has brought him back, most likely returning to number three.
Across seven matches in the current year, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.
Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.
Battle of Spin
For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger β spin bowling.
Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spin bowlers to ever play.
Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.
It would seem logical for the home team to want Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.
During that period, slow bowlers have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, though Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.
Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.
Recall the potency of pace bowling?
It is reducing Lyon's time with the ball.
During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.
In the previous year, in five matches against India, it was only half as many.
Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to make an impact.
Right place, right time?
The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.
The series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have not won since 1986.
In recent times, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide.
The visitors have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.
Then comes Perth, a city England have visited 14 times since 1970 and won only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.
This time, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.
The Perth Test stages an series opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca β site of past English struggles β but the shiny new Perth Stadium.
It is still a tough assignment, though one the visitors approach with no past burdens.
The Gabba is the venue for the second match, the day-night fixture.
The last time Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by West Indies.
Likewise, the Aussies are now not used to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.
Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.
The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.
The home side have won four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the most recent match β against India the previous year.
Each match at the new venue has been won by the team setting a target.
England often complicate day-night matches, when statistics suggest the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.
The challenge in {day-night matches|
